Companies · Payments / fintech
FOUR Shift4 Payments, Inc.
Price$45.32
Day+0.6%
Market cap~$3.6B
Stancebullish
My thesis
Payments at a value multiple. Shift4 does ~$4.2B in annual sales, is solidly profitable (~$1.32/share last quarter), and trades at 10x earnings and 0.83x sales — down 48% in a year on what looks like sentiment rather than fundamentals. Founder-led by Jared Isaacman and deeply embedded in hospitality and venues through integrated point-of-sale. At these multiples you don't need heroics, just execution.
Catalysts
- Continued profitable growth at a value multiple
- Venue/hospitality vertical expansion
- Multiple re-rating toward payments peers
Risks
- Competition from Stripe, Adyen, Toast for the same volume
- Leverage in the business model
- Payments is a scale game — smaller players get squeezed
Analyst notes
Added to watch portfolio at ~$45 at the user's request. Profitable payments at 10x earnings — the drawdown looks like sentiment.